Volatile Sectors: Where Türkiye's Exports Swing Most

3 days ago

3 min read

Türkiye's total exports grew a steady 4.5% in 2025.¹ Inside that average, some sectors moved by double digits in either direction. For buyers, volatility means price swings, supply gaps and sometimes opportunity. For suppliers, it shows where risks and openings are. Here are the sectors that moved most, and the reasons behind them.

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Defence and aerospace · Up 48.8% · Olive oil · Down 39.0%
Ships and yachts · Up 17.4% · Hazelnuts · Down 14.5%
Automotive · Up 11.6% · Ready made garments · Down 6.4%
Fresh fruit and vegetables · Up 8.9% · Carpets · Down 1.0%

Source: TİM data as reported by Anadolu Ajansı and haber.aero.² ³

Hazelnuts: a supply shock

Hazelnuts are one of Türkiye's best known agricultural exports, and the harvest decides the year. Hazelnut exports jumped 41.7% in 2024.⁴ In 2025 spring frosts, drought and pests cut the crop: export volume fell 26% and revenue fell 14% to about USD 2.25 billion.⁵ When supply drops, prices rise and volumes fall at the same time. Buyers who lock in volumes early in the season are better protected.

Olive oil: the price cycle turned

Olive oil exports fell 39% in 2025 to about USD 496 million.³ The backdrop is a falling price cycle: Eurostat data reported in Türkiye show EU olive oil prices fell 23% in 2025 after four years of increases.⁶ For olive oil, the export value can swing sharply even when shipped volumes are stable.

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Steel: trade defence in Europe

From 1 July 2026 the EU cut duty free steel quotas by about 47% and set a 50% tariff on steel above the quota. The Turkish Steel Exporters' Association estimates a possible loss of around 3.5 million tonnes, about USD 3 billion a year; Turkish steel exports to the EU were 6 million tonnes in 2025.⁷ The Turkish Steel Producers' Association has also warned that CBAM default emission values used in the EU are well above the levels of Turkish electric arc furnace steel.⁸ Read our article on CBAM for what exporters can do.

Garments: cost and finance pressure

Ready made garments fell 6.4% in 2025 after a 6.9% fall in 2024.² ⁴ TİM's chairman has pointed to high interest rates and competitiveness problems that slow exporters down.⁹ Sales fell to key European markets such as Germany, Spain and Poland.¹⁰

Jewellery: policy driven swings

Jewellery exports fell 33% in the first half of 2026. The Jewellery Exporters' Association linked the fall to the monthly gold import quota, which opened a gap between Turkish and international gold prices.¹¹ In August 2026 the sector then jumped 174.7% year on year.¹²

Defence and automotive: growth with concentration

Defence and aerospace grew almost 49% in 2025, driven by demand from Europe and other markets.¹³ Automotive grew 11.6%, but the gain was concentrated: one major manufacturer's exports rose 32.8% while another's fell 15.2%.¹⁴ When growth depends on a few producers or programmes, it can also reverse quickly.

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What buyers can do

Spread purchases across two or three verified suppliers, and sometimes two regions of Türkiye.
Agree volumes and price mechanisms early for seasonal crops.
Watch trade defence and carbon rules in your own market as closely as prices.
Use local partners who can follow harvests, policy and capacity on the ground.

Turki.sh lets buyers compare several verified Turkish suppliers on one request and keep alternatives ready when a sector turns.